In 2019, the polyester filament market as a whole is in a shocking down trend. In addition to the traditional “Golden Nine” peak season, the downstream weaving operation rate has shown a downward trend. The industry’s confidence in the market outlook is seriously insufficient. The “Golden Jiuwang Season” has gone away. Ten will also be absent? Looking forward to it, I hope that it will arrive at the end of September, but the downstream stocking is gone... Although the stock of polyester filament factory is still at a low level of 6-18 days, the total inventory of the industry will definitely increase significantly during the 11-day holiday. The sales promotion of some polyester filament factories has gradually increased. The polyester filament market in the pre-holiday market has maintained a weak trend. The follow-up of the “dangerous season” is still not optimistic.
As for the trend of “Silver 10”, the short-term geopolitical factors have a greater impact on the cost side. Under the risk premium of crude oil prices in the Middle East, the international crude oil is still relatively resilient.
In addition, in October, the upstream raw material PTA has three sets of equipment waiting for overhaul, and the market price after the holiday may be supported. However, the negative impact from the new production from the cost end and the supply side cannot be ignored. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to consolidate and wait for the post-holiday market. Market trends still need to pay close attention to the progress of key macro events such as the China-US trade consultation. Affected by this, the eleven long holiday returns, although the stock of polyester filament factory increased, but after the pre-holiday market price adjustment adjustment, cost support, the post-holiday polyester filament market price decline may narrow before the holiday. However, the downstream demand is not likely to improve, and it is still mainly based on maintenance. The weaving factory is mainly focused on purchasing raw materials in stages. If there is no good stimulus, the price of polyester filament POY in October is expected to remain in the range of around 7500-7900 yuan/ton.